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id="wlnbsi8" class="main_left"> <div id="et4rvvg" class="det_title"> <div id="otatsss" class="det_title_info"><h1>秋風(fēng)：房地產(chǎn)畸形繁榮，全因?qū)捤韶泿耪?/h1></div> <p>發(fā)布時間:<span>2020-06-19</span> 來源: <span><a href="http://smilezhuce.com/lishihuizuo/" class="lanmu">歷史回眸</a></span> 點擊：<span id="hits"></span> <span><a ><img style="vertical-align: middle; height:16px;" src="/images/wap.jpg" /></a></span></p> </div> <div id="kzqoj4l" class="det_content" id="zoom"> <p></p> <div id="bg9cnu4" class=ggad></div> <p>　　 </p><p>　　高房價再次成為眾矢之的，那么，是誰制造了高房價？各方展開了一場數(shù)據(jù)大戰(zhàn)，紛紛用自己的數(shù)據(jù)來摘清自己，把責(zé)任推給別人。</p><p>　　國土資源部公布了全國620個調(diào)查項目的數(shù)據(jù)，其中北京的21個項目中，地價占房價的最高比例為51.36%，最低為14.33%，平均為25%。全國地價占房價的比例平均為23.2%。言外之意是，高房價是房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商制造的，是其瘋狂追逐利潤的產(chǎn)物。</p><p>　　參加這620個房地產(chǎn)項目土地成本調(diào)查的中國地質(zhì)勘測規(guī)劃院地價所將這一意思說得明明白白：開發(fā)商的建安成本、管理成本、銷售成本最高不會超過30%，加之稅費成本10%和平均土地成本23.2%，開發(fā)商最終的直接利潤應(yīng)該在40%左右，即便算上增值稅，流向政府的也不會超過40%。所以，房價之所以高，完全是因為開發(fā)商心太黑。</p><p>　　開發(fā)商卻不同意這種說法。積極充當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商代言人的任志強一直強調(diào)，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商其實是在為政府打工。全國工商聯(lián)房地產(chǎn)商會調(diào)查顯示，地價房價比高達58.2%，認為地價推高了房價。鄭州一位開發(fā)商則通過央視公開了一份房地產(chǎn)成本清單：樓面地價占到售價的40%，建安成本占30%。該開發(fā)商特別強調(diào)，各級行政部門的稅費占房價的20%，收費項目至少30項，且存在重復(fù)征收、變相征收現(xiàn)象。結(jié)論是：房價之所以高，主要是因為政府太貪錢。</p><p>　　說實在話，一個行業(yè)與政府如此公開地以數(shù)據(jù)論證對方對一件大家都覺得不那么好的事情的責(zé)任，還是很新鮮的，也是一件好事。也許，隨著這場數(shù)據(jù)戰(zhàn)逐漸升級，人們當(dāng)能對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的政-商關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀有更清楚的認識。</p><p>　　不過，要弄清誰對高房價承擔(dān)責(zé)任，其實用不著如此大動干戈。事實上，雙方如此引用數(shù)據(jù)，說明雙方都沒有理解經(jīng)濟行為的內(nèi)在邏輯，沒有理解價格的形成機制。開發(fā)商大談地價數(shù)據(jù)，隱含了這樣一個預(yù)設(shè)：房價是由生產(chǎn)它的成本(這其中很重要的一部分是地價)決定的。政府揭露開發(fā)商的利潤率數(shù)據(jù)隱含了這樣的預(yù)設(shè)：利潤可以決定房價，開發(fā)商可以隨心所欲地獲取高利潤。</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟學(xué)的基本原理不支持這兩個預(yù)設(shè)。首先，應(yīng)當(dāng)假定，市場活動的各方主體都具有正常理性，具體地說，購房者不是傻子，怎么可能無緣無故地讓開發(fā)商賺取高利潤率？其次，價格也不可能由成本來決定。如果是這樣的話，那采購了價格最高原料的最傻的采購經(jīng)理，豈不是可以為企業(yè)帶來最大利潤？</p><p>　　要弄清高房價的責(zé)任，需要了解價格的形成機制。簡單地說，一棟房屋的價格既不完全是由生產(chǎn)成本決定的，也不完全是由供需決定的。從某種程度上說，在一個競爭性市場上，價格決定供需，價格也決定成本。當(dāng)然，更準確地說，價格是由交易雙方關(guān)于市場情勢的預(yù)期所決定的。</p><p>　　最近的局面有助于我們理解這一經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理。今年初，房屋市場恢復(fù)繁榮，房價開始回升。開發(fā)商購買土地的欲望陡然提高，土地價格攀升，各地不斷出現(xiàn)“地王”。從這里看得很清楚，先有高房價，然后有了高地價。當(dāng)然，反過來，高地價又給開發(fā)商發(fā)出一個明確的信號：房屋的價格將會上漲，準備售房的開發(fā)商于是繼續(xù)提高房屋的價格。高地價也給購房者發(fā)出強烈的信號：以后的房價還要上漲，現(xiàn)在趕緊買吧。即便開發(fā)商已提高了價格，購買人也瘋狂入市，甚至形成搶購的局面，開發(fā)商因此獲得高額利潤率，但購房者也覺得自己賺了，因為以后房價還會漲。此后開盤的開發(fā)商就會再次提高價格，地價又會再度上漲。開發(fā)商、購房人、地方政府共同推動形成了房價、地價輪番上漲的格局。</p><p>　　因此，高房價的根源就是最初導(dǎo)致高房價的因素。通過本輪價格上漲，可以十分清楚地看到一個關(guān)鍵因素：寬松的貨幣政策。任何時候，房屋市場的繁榮、尤其是畸形繁榮，都離不開過于寬松的貨幣政策之助。大量貨幣流入經(jīng)濟體，必然首先流入房屋市場。</p><p>　　不過，房價漲到畸形的程度，且房地產(chǎn)市場成為第一個復(fù)蘇的市場，還有另一個制度性因素：土地壟斷。地方政府壟斷著商品房的土地供應(yīng)，因而，對于房價下調(diào)的任何跡象都會盡力阻止，對于房價上漲的任何跡象都表示歡迎，且傾向于放任而不采取任何抑制措施，因為房價上漲將推高地價，而地方政府將從中獲益。</p><p>　　所以，歸咎高房價的責(zé)任：首先，寬松的貨幣政策推動房價進入上漲周期，而地方政府對此傾向于不作為，甚至推波助瀾，盡可能延長房價上漲周期。這樣，在絕大部分時間，房價都在上漲，而且是畸形地上漲。唯一的問題是：這個世界上真的存在永遠畸形上漲的資產(chǎn)嗎？</p><p 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