The U.S. midterm elections will not bring a sea change in Sino-U.S. relations, experts predict
　　
　　VOTE FOR CHANGE: Voters cast their ballots at a polling station in Virginia on November 7
　　Although U.S. politics will follow a new scenario after Democrats gained control of Congress from Republicans in the midterm election on November 7, that will have a rather limited effect on the U.S. diplomatic course, including its policy toward China, analysts predicted.
　　Most Chinese experts say the election result will not gravely affect Sino-U.S relations. They hold that the views of President George W. Bush and the Democrats on foreign policy are basically alike, and they just differ over the specifics of some issues.
　　
　　
　　Though the two parties have had heated debates over many issues, they reached a consensus on the counterterrorism campaign. Even on the Iraq war, the disputes between the two parties are mainly focused on more peripheral issues such as the approach to withdrawing U.S. troops and how to deal with the Iraqi Government. Things are not as simple as Bush saying “we should stay” in Iraq and the Democrats saying “we must go right now.”
　　
　　All SMILES: Casting his ballot brings a look of joy to this Los Angeles voter
　　But experts also see possible effects on bilateral ties. They think the Democratic Party has close relations with labor unions and thus supports trade protectionism. As a result, there may be more trade frictions between the two countries.
　　“Although the House of Representatives actually has limited influence on the decision-making related to foreign policy, the change in the Congress will still have some impact on the relations between Washington and Beijing,” said Jin Canrong, Professor at the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China.
　　“Representative Nancy Pelosi, who will be the Speaker of the House, has a biased view of China, and so in the future Congress will talk more about issues such as human rights and the U.S. trade deficit with China, which may bring about a cacophony in the development of Sino-U.S. relations,” Jin said.
　　
　　Pelosi has a pro-Taiwan attitude, Chinese scholars say. When Chen Shui-bian was elected the leader of Taiwan, she was one of the leaders of the U.S. Congress who called Chen to congratulate him soon after the election. In November 2001, when the Chinese Government opposed Taiwan’s attendance at the Asian and Pacific Economic and Cooperative Summit held in Shanghai, Pelosi joined with 95 other representatives in writing to Bush, asking him to speak up for Taiwan.
　　The Democrat-dominated Congress will put more pressure on the White House to use diplomacy, such as in the policy toward China, said Wang Yiwei, a researcher at the Center for American Studies of Fudan University.
　　“The defeat of the Republicans in the midterm election will greatly affect the president exercising his policy,” he said.
　　Wang holds that the Democrats pay more attention to the interests of small and medium-sized American companies and their workers than do the Republicans, and believe that the influx of too many “made in China” products will severely harm the domestic manufacturing industry. Such a stance will have some effect on future trade between the United States and China.
　　Foreign policy views
　　
　　DOING ALL THAT SHE CAN: A voter registers in a polling station in Virginia on election day
　　On the North Korean nuclear issue, Democrats are very likely to show a more flexible stance and may even be willing to talk with North Korea bilaterally, he said.
　　“Democrats also have different thinking from Republicans on Iraq. Democrats may want Iraq’s neighboring countries, such as Syria, Iran and Turkey, to coordinate on solving the Iraq problem, rather than what President Bush is doing, which is trying to resolve the problem through the internal change of Iraq itself,” Wang said.
　　
　　The Chinese expert thinks the Democrats may try to change the president’s Iraq policy by using their appropriations and oversight powers in Congress.
　　Western analysts share views similar to those of their Chinese counterparts. They note that prior to the election both Democrats and Republicans focused on the Iraq war and the Middle East situation, and Sino-U.S. relations were not a topic. Both parties are aware of the importance of Sino-U.S. relations, and so the election will only change the composition of Congress, not bring a major change in relations between the United States and China.
　　Although many elements affecting the smooth development of Sino-U.S. relations come from Congress, the president dominates foreign policy.
　　“The policy itself won’t change in the short term, because the president has the power to veto,” David Brady, Deputy Director of the Hoover Institution, told Beijing Review.
　　But he also foresees that the Democrats will place more emphasis on job protectionism, U.S. trade deficit with China and human rights. “But it will not bring a fundamental change in a couple of years, ” Brady said.
　　In his view, the United States and China have a very solid working relationship now. “The two countries are working together on the North Korea issue. The trade relationship between the two countries is also very good. Besides, the Chinese Government has floated the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar. All these are positive.
　　“Although some people in the United States want to see China as an enemy economically and militarily and there are also some people in China who want to see the United States as an enemy, I think those people are not ascendant, and they are in the minority in both countries.”

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